## ----setup, include = TRUE----------------------------------------------------
knitr::opts_chunk$set(
  collapse = TRUE,
  comment = "#>",
  fig.width = 8,
  fig.height = 6,
  warning = FALSE,
  message = FALSE
)

## ----packages, eval=TRUE------------------------------------------------------
library(shrinkr)
library(distributional)
library(MASS)

# Bayesian ecosystem
library(posterior)
library(bayesplot)
library(tidybayes)
library(ggdist)

# Tidyverse
library(dplyr)
library(tidyr)
library(ggplot2)

theme_set(theme_minimal(base_size = 12))

## ----simulate_data, eval=TRUE-------------------------------------------------
set.seed(1104)

# True effects (unknown in practice)
true_effects <- c(0.45, 0.60, 0.38, -0.10, 0.65)
region_names <- c("North", "South", "East", "West", "Central")

# Simulate posterior samples from Stage 1
samples_list <- lapply(1:5, function(i) {
  matrix(rnorm(2000, true_effects[i], 0.20), ncol = 1)
})
names(samples_list) <- region_names

## ----fit_shrinkr, eval=TRUE---------------------------------------------------
# Fit mixture approximation
mix <- fit_mixture(samples_list, K_max = 3, verbose = FALSE)

# Specify hierarchical priors
priors <- list(
  mu = dist_normal(0, 5),
  tau = dist_truncated(dist_student_t(3, 0, 1), lower = 0)
)

# Run hierarchical shrinkage
fit <- shrink(
  mixture = mix,
  hierarchical_priors = priors,
  chains = 4,
  iter = 2000,
  warmup = 1000,
  cores = 1,
  seed = 2024,
  refresh = 0
)

## ----extract_draws, eval=TRUE-------------------------------------------------
# Extract all parameters as draws_df
draws <- as_draws_df(fit)

# See what's available
variables(draws)

# Extract specific parameters
mu_tau_draws <- extract_mu_tau(fit)
theta_draws <- extract_theta(fit)

## ----posterior_summaries, eval=TRUE-------------------------------------------
# Quick summary of all parameters
summarize_draws(draws)

# Focus on theta parameters
summarize_draws(theta_draws, mean, sd, median, mad, ~quantile(.x, c(0.025, 0.975)))

# Convergence diagnostics
summarize_draws(draws, default_convergence_measures())

# Custom summaries
summarise_draws(
  theta_draws,
  mean,
  sd,
  prob_positive = ~mean(.x > 0),
  prob_large = ~mean(.x > 0.5)
)

## ----convergence_check, eval=TRUE---------------------------------------------
# Check Rhat for all parameters
all_rhats <- summarise_draws(draws, "rhat")
max(all_rhats$rhat, na.rm = TRUE)

# Check effective sample size
summarise_draws(draws, "ess_bulk", "ess_tail") %>%
  filter(ess_bulk < 400 | ess_tail < 400)

# Detailed diagnostics for specific parameters
summarise_draws(
  subset_draws(draws, variable = c("mu", "tau")),
  default_convergence_measures()
)

## ----trace_plots, fig.width=10, fig.height=8, eval=TRUE-----------------------
# Check hyperparameters
mcmc_trace(draws, pars = c("mu", "tau", "tau_squared"))

# Check first few thetas
mcmc_trace(draws, regex_pars = "theta\\[[1-3]\\]")

# All thetas at once (if not too many)
mcmc_trace(draws, regex_pars = "theta")

## ----density_plots, fig.width=10, fig.height=6, eval=TRUE---------------------
# Overlay densities from different chains
mcmc_dens_overlay(draws, pars = c("mu", "tau"))

# Individual densities
mcmc_dens(draws, pars = c("mu", "tau", "tau_squared"))

# Compare all thetas
mcmc_dens_overlay(draws, regex_pars = "theta")

## ----interval_plots, fig.width=10, fig.height=6, eval=TRUE--------------------
# All thetas with 50% and 95% intervals
mcmc_intervals(draws, regex_pars = "theta", prob = 0.5, prob_outer = 0.95)

# With point estimates
mcmc_intervals_data(draws, regex_pars = "theta") %>%
  ggplot(aes(y = parameter)) +
  geom_pointrange(aes(x = m, xmin = ll, xmax = hh)) +
  geom_point(aes(x = m), size = 3) +
  labs(title = "Posterior Intervals for Regional Effects", x = "Effect Size", y = NULL)

## ----area_plots, fig.width=10, fig.height=6, eval=TRUE------------------------
# Hyperparameters
mcmc_areas(draws, pars = c("mu", "tau"), prob = 0.95, prob_outer = 0.99)

# All thetas
mcmc_areas(draws, regex_pars = "theta", prob = 0.8)

## ----tidybayes_basics, eval=TRUE----------------------------------------------
# Gather theta parameters into long format
theta_tidy <- draws %>%
  gather_draws(theta[region]) %>%
  mutate(region = region_names[region])

head(theta_tidy)

# Spread into wide format
theta_wide <- draws %>%
  spread_draws(theta[region]) %>%
  mutate(region = region_names[region])

head(theta_wide)

## ----tidybayes_summaries, eval=TRUE-------------------------------------------
# Median and 95% quantile intervals
theta_tidy %>%
  group_by(region) %>%
  median_qi(.value, .width = 0.95)

# Multiple interval widths
theta_tidy %>%
  group_by(region) %>%
  median_qi(.value, .width = c(0.5, 0.8, 0.95))

# Mean and HDI (highest density interval)
theta_tidy %>%
  group_by(region) %>%
  mean_hdi(.value, .width = 0.95)

## ----dplyr_summaries, eval=TRUE-----------------------------------------------
# Probability of positive effect
theta_tidy %>%
  group_by(region) %>%
  summarise(
    mean_effect = mean(.value),
    sd_effect = sd(.value),
    prob_positive = mean(.value > 0),
    prob_clinically_meaningful = mean(.value > 0.3),
    .groups = "drop"
  ) %>%
  arrange(desc(prob_positive))


## ----contrasts, eval=TRUE-----------------------------------------------------
# Method 1: Using shrinkr's built-in function
L <- rbind(
  "South - North" = c(-1, 1, 0, 0, 0),
  "Central - North" = c(-1, 0, 0, 0, 1),
  "South - West" = c(0, 1, 0, -1, 0)
)
contrasts <- theta_contrasts(fit, L, labels = rownames(L))
summarise_draws(contrasts)

# Method 2: Using tidybayes compare_levels
theta_wide %>%
  compare_levels(theta, by = region, comparison = "pairwise") %>%
  group_by(region) %>%
  median_qi(theta) %>%
  arrange(desc(theta))

## ----halfeye, fig.width=10, fig.height=6, eval=TRUE---------------------------
theta_tidy %>%
  ggplot(aes(y = region, x = .value)) +
  stat_halfeye(
    .width = c(0.66, 0.95),
    fill = "steelblue"
  ) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", alpha = 0.5) +
  labs(
    title = "Regional Treatment Effects",
    subtitle = "Posterior distributions with median and 66%/95% intervals",
    x = "Treatment Effect",
    y = NULL
  )

## ----slab_interval, fig.width=10, fig.height=6, eval=TRUE---------------------
theta_tidy %>%
  ggplot(aes(y = region, x = .value)) +
  stat_slab(aes(fill_ramp = after_stat(level)), fill = "steelblue", alpha = 0.8) +
  stat_pointinterval(.width = c(0.66, 0.95), position = position_nudge(y = -0.15)) +
  scale_fill_ramp_discrete(range = c(1, 0.2), guide = "none") +
  labs(
    title = "Posterior Densities with Quantile Intervals",
    x = "Treatment Effect",
    y = NULL
  )

## ----dotplot, fig.width=10, fig.height=6, eval=TRUE---------------------------
theta_tidy %>%
  ggplot(aes(y = region, x = .value)) +
  stat_dots(quantiles = 100) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", alpha = 0.5) +
  labs(
    title = "Quantile Dotplots",
    subtitle = "Each dot represents 1% of the posterior",
    x = "Treatment Effect",
    y = NULL
  )

## ----gradient, fig.width=10, fig.height=6, eval=TRUE--------------------------
theta_tidy %>%
  ggplot(aes(y = region, x = .value)) +
  stat_gradientinterval(.width = ppoints(50)) +
  scale_color_brewer(palette = "Blues", guide = "none") +
  labs(
    title = "Gradient Interval Representation",
    x = "Treatment Effect",
    y = NULL
  )

## ----compare_shrinkage, eval=TRUE---------------------------------------------
# Get pre-shrunk estimates from mixture
pre_shrunk <- summarise_theta(fit) %>%
  mutate(type = "Pre-shrunk")

# Get post-shrunk estimates
post_shrunk <- summarise_theta(fit) %>%
  mutate(type = "Post-shrunk")

# Or use shrinkr's built-in plot
plot(fit, group_names = region_names)

## ----custom_comparison, fig.width=12, fig.height=6, eval=TRUE-----------------
# Get the hierarchical mean (mu)
mu_draws <- draws %>% spread_draws(mu)
mu_mean <- mean(mu_draws$mu)

# Combine with Stage 1 samples
stage1_draws <- lapply(seq_along(samples_list), function(i) {
  data.frame(
    region = region_names[i],
    .value = samples_list[[i]][,1],
    type = "Stage 1"
  )
}) %>% bind_rows()

stage2_draws <- theta_tidy %>%
  mutate(type = "Stage 2 (Shrunk)")

# Plot side by side
bind_rows(stage1_draws, stage2_draws) %>%
  ggplot(aes(y = region, x = .value, fill = type)) +
  stat_halfeye(alpha = 0.7, position = position_dodge(width = 0.4)) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", alpha = 0.5, color = "gray50") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = mu_mean, linetype = "solid", alpha = 0.8, 
             color = "darkred", linewidth = 1) +
  annotate("text", x = mu_mean, y = 0.5, 
           label = sprintf("Global mean (μ) = %.2f", mu_mean),
           hjust = -0.1, color = "darkred", size = 3.5) +
  scale_fill_manual(values = c("Stage 1" = "gray70", "Stage 2 (Shrunk)" = "steelblue")) +
  labs(
    title = "Stage 1 vs Stage 2: Effect of Hierarchical Shrinkage",
    subtitle = "Stage 2 estimates are pulled toward the global mean",
    x = "Treatment Effect",
    y = NULL,
    fill = NULL
  ) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom")

## ----complete_workflow, fig.width=12, fig.height=10, eval=TRUE----------------
# 1. Extract and prepare data
analysis_data <- draws %>%
  spread_draws(mu, tau, theta[i]) %>%
  mutate(region = region_names[i])

# 2. Compute summaries
summary_table <- analysis_data %>%
  group_by(region) %>%
  summarise(
    mean = mean(theta),
    median = median(theta),
    sd = sd(theta),
    q025 = quantile(theta, 0.025),
    q975 = quantile(theta, 0.975),
    prob_positive = mean(theta > 0),
    prob_clinically_important = mean(theta > 0.3),
    .groups = "drop"
  ) %>%
  arrange(desc(median))

print(summary_table)

# 3. Create advanced figure
library(patchwork)

p1 <- analysis_data %>%
  ggplot(aes(y = reorder(region, theta), x = theta)) +
  stat_halfeye(.width = c(0.66, 0.95), fill = "steelblue") +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", alpha = 0.5) +
  labs(
    title = "A. Regional Treatment Effects",
    x = "Effect Size",
    y = NULL
  )

p2 <- analysis_data %>%
  dplyr::ungroup() %>%
  dplyr::select(mu, tau, .draw) %>%
  dplyr::distinct() %>%
  tidyr::pivot_longer(cols = c(mu, tau), names_to = "name", values_to = "value") %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = value, fill = name)) +
  stat_halfeye(alpha = 0.7) +
  facet_wrap(~name, scales = "free", labeller = label_both) +
  scale_fill_brewer(palette = "Set2") +
  labs(
    title = "B. Hyperparameters",
    x = "Value",
    y = "Density"
  ) +
  theme(legend.position = "none")

p3 <- analysis_data %>%
  dplyr::ungroup() %>%
  dplyr::select(.draw, region, theta) %>%
  compare_levels(theta, by = region) %>%
  ggplot(aes(y = region, x = theta)) +
  stat_halfeye(fill = "coral", alpha = 0.7) +
  geom_vline(xintercept = 0, linetype = "dashed", color = "red", alpha = 0.5) +
  labs(
    title = "C. Pairwise Regional Comparisons",
    x = "Difference in Effect Size",
    y = NULL
  )

p4 <- analysis_data %>%
  dplyr::ungroup() %>%
  dplyr::select(.draw, mu, tau) %>%
  dplyr::distinct() %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = mu, y = tau)) +
  geom_hex(bins = 30) +
  stat_ellipse(level = 0.95, color = "red", linewidth = 1) +
  scale_fill_viridis_c() +
  labs(
    title = "D. Hyperparameter Correlation",
    x = expression(mu~"(global mean)"),
    y = expression(tau~"(heterogeneity)")
  )

(p1 + p2) / (p3 + p4) +
  plot_annotation(
    title = "Complete Bayesian Shrinkage Analysis",
    subtitle = sprintf(
      "Global effect: %.2f [%.2f, %.2f] | Heterogeneity (tau): %.2f",
      median(analysis_data$mu),
      quantile(analysis_data$mu, 0.025),
      quantile(analysis_data$mu, 0.975),
      median(analysis_data$tau)
    )
  )

## ----probability_statements, eval=TRUE----------------------------------------
# Which region is best?
analysis_data %>%
  group_by(.draw) %>%
  slice_max(theta, n = 1) %>%
  ungroup() %>%
  count(region) %>%
  mutate(probability = n / sum(n)) %>%
  arrange(desc(probability))

# Alternative: probability each region is best
analysis_data %>%
  group_by(.draw) %>%
  mutate(rank = rank(-theta)) %>%
  ungroup() %>%
  group_by(region) %>%
  summarise(
    prob_best = mean(rank == 1),
    prob_top2 = mean(rank <= 2),
    mean_rank = mean(rank),
    .groups = "drop"
  ) %>%
  arrange(mean_rank)

# Pairwise comparisons: Probability that South > North
# Create wide format for comparisons
theta_wide_for_contrasts <- analysis_data %>%
  ungroup() %>%
  dplyr::select(.draw, region, theta) %>%
  tidyr::pivot_wider(names_from = region, values_from = theta)

theta_wide_for_contrasts %>%
  summarise(
    prob_south_beats_north = mean(South > North),
    prob_south_beats_north_by_02 = mean((South - North) > 0.2),
    prob_central_beats_all = mean(
      Central > North & Central > South & 
      Central > East & Central > West
    )
  )

## ----tail_probs, eval=TRUE----------------------------------------------------
# Classify effects into categories
theta_tidy %>%
  group_by(region) %>%
  summarise(
    prob_harm = mean(.value < -0.1),
    prob_null = mean(abs(.value) < 0.1),
    prob_small_benefit = mean(.value > 0.1 & .value < 0.3),
    prob_large_benefit = mean(.value > 0.3),
    .groups = "drop"
  ) %>%
  arrange(desc(prob_large_benefit))

# Visualize classification
theta_tidy %>%
  mutate(
    category = case_when(
      .value < -0.1 ~ "Harm",
      abs(.value) < 0.1 ~ "Null",
      .value > 0.1 & .value < 0.3 ~ "Small Benefit",
      .value > 0.3 ~ "Large Benefit"
    )
  ) %>%
  count(region, category) %>%
  group_by(region) %>%
  mutate(probability = n / sum(n)) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = probability, y = region, fill = category)) +
  geom_col(position = "stack") +
  scale_fill_manual(
    values = c(
      "Harm" = "red",
      "Null" = "gray",
      "Small Benefit" = "lightblue",
      "Large Benefit" = "darkblue"
    )
  ) +
  labs(
    title = "Classification of Treatment Effects",
    x = "Probability",
    y = NULL,
    fill = "Effect Category"
  ) +
  theme(legend.position = "bottom")

## ----ranking, eval=TRUE-------------------------------------------------------
# Compute ranks for each draw
rank_data <- analysis_data %>%
  group_by(.draw) %>%
  mutate(rank = rank(-theta)) %>%
  ungroup()

# Summary statistics
rank_summary <- rank_data %>%
  group_by(region) %>%
  summarise(
    mean_rank = mean(rank),
    median_rank = median(rank),
    prob_rank1 = mean(rank == 1),
    prob_rank2 = mean(rank == 2),
    prob_top3 = mean(rank <= 3),
    .groups = "drop"
  ) %>%
  arrange(mean_rank)

print(rank_summary)

# Visualize ranking distribution
rank_data %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = rank, y = reorder(region, -theta))) +
  stat_dots(quantiles = 100) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = 1:5) +
  labs(
    title = "Ranking Distribution",
    subtitle = "Each dot represents 1% of posterior draws",
    x = "Rank (1 = best, 5 = worst)",
    y = NULL
  )

# Alternative: bar chart of ranking probabilities
rank_data %>%
  count(region, rank) %>%
  group_by(region) %>%
  mutate(probability = n / sum(n)) %>%
  ggplot(aes(x = rank, y = probability, fill = region)) +
  geom_col() +
  facet_wrap(~region, ncol = 1) +
  scale_x_continuous(breaks = 1:5) +
  scale_fill_brewer(palette = "Set2") +
  labs(
    title = "Probability of Each Rank by Region",
    x = "Rank (1 = best)",
    y = "Probability"
  ) +
  theme(legend.position = "none")

